Market Overview
As of early July 2026, the Chinese ferrosilicon market maintains a sideways consolidation pattern, with prices showing limited volatility compared to the previous month. The benchmark 72# ferrosilicon is currently trading at RMB 5,400-5,510 per ton (EXW, cash), while 75# ferrosilicon stands at RMB 5,900-6,000 per ton. On the futures market, the main contract SF2609 closed at RMB 5,680 per ton last week.
Supply Side Analysis
Domestic production remains relatively stable. According to SMM data, national ferrosilicon output reached approximately 462,000 tons in June 2026, representing a 1.2% month-on-month increase. Major production areas in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu have maintained normal operating rates, supported by relatively stable electricity prices and sufficient raw material supplies.
Cost & Demand Dynamics
Cost side continues to provide moderate support. Semi-coke prices have stabilized around RMB 1,250-1,300 per ton, while silica and iron ore prices remain within their recent ranges. However, downstream demand continues to show weakness. Crude steel production has seen marginal reductions amid environmental inspections in northern China, and steel mills have maintained conservative procurement strategies, typically purchasing on a 7-10 day hand-to-mouth basis.
Export Market
Export demand shows mixed signals. While traditional markets in Japan and South Korea maintain steady inquiries, demand from Southeast Asia has softened due to the monsoon season affecting construction activities. Indian buyers have adopted a wait-and-see approach amid their domestic monsoon season.
Outlook
The market is expected to maintain range-bound operation in the short term. Cost support from raw materials and electricity will prevent significant downside, while weak downstream demand and sufficient supply will cap upward potential. The SF2609 futures contract is likely to fluctuate within the RMB 5,500-5,800 range in July.
Published: July 1, 2026 | Source: SMM, Mysteel, Huatai Futures